:Product: 20001213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low, with only minor C-class events
observed during the past 24 hours.  The largest flare, a C4/Sf at
13/0823Z, originated from Region 9267, a growing region (currently a
23-spot DAI Beta) that generated yesterday's M1/1F event.  Three new
regions were numbered today: 9268 (S17E74), 9269 (N14E63) and 9270
(S11E10).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low,
with the continued probability for isolated M-class events,
primarily from Region 9267.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a single period of
unsettled conditions recorded at Boulder during the interval
13/0000-0300Z.  The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous altitudes continue to fluctuate between low and
moderate levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 165
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01