:Product: 20001224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels, due to a
single M-class flare:  an M1/Sf at 24/1115 UTC, from Region 9283
(S12E53).  This region also produced several elevated C-class events
throughout the day, and exhibits notable growth in spot count, areal
coverage, and magnetic complexity since yesterday.  Region 9280
(N09E80) remains the largest spot group on the disk, and also shows
some increase in magnetic complexity, though did not produce any
notable flare activity today.  Two new regions were numbered:
9285 (N06E59) and 9286 (N30W47), with the former a source of some
subfaint C-class flare activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  Regions 9280 and 9283 are the
most likely sources of potential M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at middle and high latitudes
throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Some chance of
active levels exists for day one, due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 193
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec  195/195/190
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  012/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  012/012-010/010-007/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01