:Product: 20001226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Two new regions were
numbered today:  9288 (S21E26) and 9289 (S07E81).  The latter
produced an M1/SF east limb event at 26/1613 UTC.  Other activity
included several instances of low- and mid-level C-class activity,
most of which was optically uncorrelated, but with Region 9283
(S11E24) indicated by SOHO/EIT data as a likely source for some of
this activity.  An active prominence on the southeast limb (S30E90)
was observed late in the period.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 9280 (N09W18), 9283, and 9289 all have
potential for isolated M-class activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic filed was quiet throughout the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Dec 189
Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  190/185/175
90 Day Mean        26 Dec 174
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01