:Product: 20001230RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest event this period
was a C5/Sf flare that occurred in Region 9283 (S11W28) at 30/1039Z.
This region has been in slow decay over the past 2-3 days, but
continues to produce occasional C-class flares. The largest active
region on the visible disk is Region 9289 (S07E30) which has now
developed into an EKI beta-gamma group nearing 900 millionths of
white light area. Frequent brightenings were observed and occasional
low C-class flares occurred, but magnetic complexity appears
moderate at best. New region 9292 (N25E63) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Large Region 9289 will continue to produce C-class
activity with a good chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Dec 182
Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan  185/175/170
90 Day Mean        30 Dec 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01