:Product: 20001231RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Dec 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2000
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class flares
were observed. Region 9289 (S07E16) retains large white light area
coverage and some mixture of magnetic polarities, but was generally
stable. Brightness fluctuations and subflare rates have decreased.
Remaining regions were stable or in decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Though relatively quiet, Region 9289 has potential for
an isolated M-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet levels through day two. Unsettled
conditions are likely by day three as a coronal hole moves into a
geoeffectively favorable position.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Dec 170
Predicted   01 Jan-03 Jan  170/165/165
90 Day Mean        31 Dec 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  005/010-005/010-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05