:Product: 20010101RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few small C-class subflares occurred in Regions 9283 (S10W57) and 9289 (S06E03). Region 9283 is a small decaying D-type sunspot group. Region 9289 remains a large E-type sunspot group with some magnetic complexity. New Regions 9293 (N13E41) and 9294 (N22E69) were numbered. Neither sunspot group appears particularly significant. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9289 is the most likely source of flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for the first day of the forecast period. Activity may increase to unsettled to active levels by the end of the forecast period due to a well-positioned coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Jan 171 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 005/010-010/012-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 10/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01