:Product: 20010103RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares occurred, many of which were optically uncorrelated to active regions on the visible disk. The likely source of this activity remains an area at, or beyond, the northeast limb. C-class subflares also occurred in Regions 9289 (S07W25), 9290 (N29W60), and 9294 (N22E43). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional C-class activity is expected and there is a small chance of an isolated M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels during the three-day forecast period in response to a coronal hole stream. III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jan 170 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/015-015/015-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01