:Product: 20010104RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 03/2355 UTC. Images from the SOHO spacecraft suggest that the source of this flare was from just beyond the northeast limb near NE25. Small C-class flares also occurred, including a C3/Sf at 04/2008 UTC in Region 9289 (S07W38) and a C2/Sf at 04/1914 UTC in newly numbered Region 9301 (N07E73). New Regions 9297 (N24W16), 9298 (S22W04), 9299 (N09E39), and 9300 (S14E55) were also numbered. All of the new active regions appear relatively small and simple. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. C-class subflares are expected to continue and a chance of an isolated M-class flare exists. The most likely source of the M-class activity remains the active region just beyond the northeast limb. This area will probably begin rotating into view within the next 24 hours. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Jan 175 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 015/015-015/015-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05