:Product: 20010107RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The most impressive event of the period was a CME launched from beyond the NW limb at about 0400 UTC. An H-alpha filament disappeared in conjunction with the eruption. The largest flare was a C5 x-ray event associated with Region 9302 (N20E39) at 06/2350 UTC. The event was seen in the EIT imagery from SOHO. Two new regions, 9304 (N11E58) and 9305 (S07E64) were assigned, bringing the number of spotted regions to 13. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Jan 177 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 175/180/185 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 010/007-010/007-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05