:Product: 20010111RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only three isolated C-class events occurred during the period. The largest was a C1/SF event from Region 9308 (N14E39) at 10/0215 UTC. Region 9306 (N12E14) developed into a more complex Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration during the period but showed little activity during that time. One new region was numbered, 9309 (N09W16). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels with possible isolated M-class events possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jan 166 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 010/007-015/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/35/30 Minor storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01