:Product: 20010114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 014 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Mostly optically uncorrelated minor C-class events occurred during the period. Region 9306 (N12W25) did produce a C8/Sf at 14/0254Z. Region 9306 continued to show growth and is currently an Fac beta-gamma sunspot group with over 500 millionths of white light area and approximately 60 spots. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance of M-Class activity from Region 9306. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A flilament erupted on the northwest limb at approximately 14/0430Z. This event and the associated CME following was observed in the SOHO/LASCO imagery. At this time, most of the energy from this CME does not appear earth-directed. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan Class M 40/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jan 176 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 185/190/190 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01