:Product: 20010115RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar Activity was low. Region 9306 (N12W38) produced a short duration C9/Sf X-ray event at 15/1603Z, and a C4/Sf at 15/1847Z. Several other minor C-class events were also observed, some optically uncorrelated. Since yesterday, a slight decrease was noted in the number of spots in Region 9306 with no significant change in white light area or magnetic complexity. However, minor growth was observed in Region 9308 during the period. New Regions 9310 (N26E37), and 9311 (N04E53) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. Region 9306 continues to be capable of producing an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Jan 169 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/008-008/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01