:Product: 20010116RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9306 (N11W53) produced a C2/Sf X-ray event at 16/0611Z. Otherwise, only a few minor optically uncorrelated events occurred. While Region 9306 is now classified as an Fki beta-gamma sunpot group, an overall decrease in white light area and the number of spots was observed since yesterday. New Region 9312 (N08E60) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominately low. Region 9306 continues to have the capability to produce an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan Class M 50/50/30 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jan 162 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/010-005/010-005/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01