:Product: 20010117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels. There are four spotted regions on the disk, all in the northern hemisphere. The largest, Region 9306 (N13W64), is decaying. Several class C X-ray events have been recorded, but optical counterparts were not reported. A type II followed by type IV radio sweep occurred at 17/0130UTC and appear to be related to activity on the Southeast limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field was basically quiet until 17/1631UTC when a sudden impulse was observed. The field has been unsettled since that time. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 50/30/20 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 152 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 155/145/140 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/010-005/007-005/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01