:Product: 20010118RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several small C class X-ray events have been recorded, most were optically uncorrelated. A new region has rotated over the east limb, Region 9313 (S08E73). This area contains a D type spot group and may actually be two separate regions. Region 9314 (N15W44) was also numbered. A small region may be developing near S29E55. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 30/20/10 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 152 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 148/145/140 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01