:Product: 20010119RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. A long duration M1/Sf flare occurred in Region 9313 (S07E57), max at 19/1710 UTC. This event consisted of several eruptive centers that brightened at various times over the duration of the flare. A small filament in this region was also reported active during the event and a CME was observed. Several new regions were numbered: Region 9315 (S28E44), Region 9316 (S17E75), and Region 9317 (N08W72). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M class events are possible. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet. III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 153 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 150/145/150 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/10 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01