:Product: 20010121RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been high during the past 24 hours due to an M7/2b flare at 20/2120Z from Region 9313 (S07E28). The event was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and was also associated with a CME. Yesterday's M1 flare (at 20/1847Z) was also associated with a CME. The first of these two CMEs appeared to move slowly and showed a full-halo signature, whereas the second CME was fast and confined to a region off the East limb of the Sun. The remainder of today's activity consisted of a couple low-level C-class events. Three new sunspot regions were assigned today: Region 9319 (S20W43), Region 9320 (S25E01) and Region 9321 (S05E69). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9313 is the main threat for M-class level events. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Most of today's activity was quiet to unsettled, Activity was enhanced between 0900-1800Z, with mostly active levels, and a minor storm period from 0900-1200Z. Solar wind data indicated two sector boundary crossings during the past 24 hours, which may be related to the geomagnetic activity. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the next 24 hours. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for the 2nd and 3rd days, in response to the full-halo CME of 20 January. III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jan 152 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 010/008-018/010-018/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor storm 10/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor storm 10/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/15/15