:Product: 20010122RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/Sf flare at 21/2312Z from region 9311 (N05W48). This group has shown slow growth during the past 24 hours and produced a few additional subflares. Region 9313 (S07E15) continues to be the largest region on the disk and shows some magnetic complexity, but could only muster one C-class subflare during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 appear to have the best potential for producing an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons was observed at geostationary orbit, but peak fluxes (around 3 pfu) remained below event level. These particles are likely to have been accelerated by the fast CME of 20 January, which was associated with an M7 x-ray flare. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next two days, with a fair chance for some isolated storm periods. The increase is anticipated with the arrival of enhanced solar wind from the two CME events of 20 January. In addition, currently enhanced levels of medium energy protons observed by ACE indicate the imminent arrival of an interplanetary shock sometime during the next 12 hours. A decrease to unsettled to slightly active is expected to occur on the third day. III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Jan 162 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 025/025-025/025-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/45/25 Minor storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 15/15/05 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 35/35/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/15