:Product: 20010125RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Jan 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent C-class X-ray flares occurred. Regions 9311 (N05W86), 9313 (S07W27), and newly numbered Region 9325 (N10E64) were responsible for most of the flares, based on analysis of SOHO/EIT images. The largest flare of the period was a C7 at 25/0713 UTC with SOHO/EIT images indicating Region 9325 as the likely source. Region 9311 was crossing the west limb as the period ended. The remaining regions were stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels on the first day decreasing to low levels on the last two days of the period. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period. III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan Class M 50/30/30 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jan 169 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05