:Product: 20010201RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9330 (N25E54) produced a C7/Sf flare at 01/0712 UTC and two lesser C-class events during the period. This region remains the largest and most active on the visible disk. Two new regions were numbered today: 9333 (N24W10) and 9334 (N12E78). Region 9333 developed with rapid growth but produced no significant activity. Region 9334 rotated onto the visible disk today and produced some subfaint optical flares, but without any notable x-ray enhancements. Other active regions on the visible disk were mostly stable and quiet. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days. Region 9330 is a potential source for isolated M-class flares. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled throughout the day, in the wake of the geomagnetic storm activity of January 31. A trend toward mostly quiet conditions has been evident for the latter half of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled periods for the next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME. III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Feb 161 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 005/005-005/005-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01