:Product: 20010203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity became moderate. Region 9334 (N11E54) produced an M2/1f flare at 3/0006Z. Small centimetric radio bursts, a Type II and IV radio sweep, and a CME accompanied this flare. The only other activity of note was a long duration C1 flare and CME that appeared to originate from regions near the NE limb. New Regions 9335 (N08E68). 9336 (S10W01), and 9337 (S27E76), were also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 9330 (N26E18) and 9334 (N11E54) still have potential for an isolated M class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, but trending towards unsettled conditions late in the three day period as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffectively favorable position. Ejecta from today's CME's do not appear earthbound. III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Feb 164 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 007/008-007/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01