:Product: 20010204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were observed from Regions 9330 (N25E04), 9334 (N11E41), and from new regions near the SE limb. Regions 9330 and 9334 are the most complex regions on the visible disk and exhibited frequent brightenings, however, no significant changes were observed in white light. New Regions 9338 (S18E59) and 9339 (S12E74) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. An isolated M class flare is possible from Region 9330 or 9334. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at low levels through day one. Unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffectively favorable position. III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Feb 158 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-010/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb-07 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01