:Product: 20010205RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9335 (N08E40) produced a C8/1F at 05/1520Z. Minor centimetric radio bursts and a Type II sweep accompanied this flare. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Regions 9327 (N19W73) and 9334 (N12E27). Moderate growth in the size and complexity of Region 9339 (S11E62) was also noted. New Region 9340 (S13E05) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M flare in Regions 9334 and 9339. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, as effects from a high speed coronal hole stream are expected early in the three day period. III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Feb 165 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 168/170/175 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/007-007/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01