:Product: 20010209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A number of small C-class flares occurred, including a C1/Sf at 09/1727 UTC in Region 9335 (N09W13). This sunspot group continues to decay slowly. Region 9338 (S20W02) also flared and exhibited frequent plage fluctuations. This area is experiencing rapid emergence of new flux and the consequent growth in sunspot size and complexity. New Regions 9346 (N18W54) and 9347 (N04E66) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible from several of the active regions currently on the visible disk but most likely in Regions 9335 and 9338. The number of new regions, recent activity near the east limb, and current dynamics in the visible regions suggest a general trend towards an increase in solar activity over the next few days. However, a significant increase, to high levels or above, is not expected. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicate that plasma and field parameters remain at nominal levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 10/15/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 162 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01