:Product: 20010209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 040 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A number of small C-class
flares occurred, including a C1/Sf at 09/1727 UTC in Region 9335
(N09W13). This sunspot group continues to decay slowly. Region 9338
(S20W02) also flared and exhibited frequent plage fluctuations. This
area is experiencing rapid emergence of new flux and the consequent
growth in sunspot size and complexity. New Regions 9346 (N18W54) and
9347 (N04E66) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from several of the active regions
currently on the visible disk but most likely in Regions 9335 and
9338. The number of new regions, recent activity near the east
limb, and current dynamics in the visible regions suggest a general
trend towards an increase in solar activity over the next few days.
However, a significant increase, to high levels or above, is not
expected.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind observations
from the NASA ACE spacecraft indicate that plasma and field
parameters remain at nominal levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    10/15/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 162
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb  165/165/165
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01