:Product: 20010210RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9338 (S20W15) was the prime flare site. It produced two C3/Sf flares, at 09/2150 and 09/2321 UTC. These were the largest events of the period. Two new regions were assigned, 9348 (N10E05) and 9349 (N27E58). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at the low level. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Feb 161 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05