:Product: 20010212RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. A general state of decay prevailed, as shown by the 6 sfu drop in today's 10.7 cm flux. Isolated C-class flares occurred with an impulsive C5 at 0118 UTC the largest of the period. EIT data suggest Region 9338 (S20W39) the source of this flare. Late in the interval, a C4/Sf flare from Region 9334 (N13W67) occurred at 2037 UTC. A type II sweep was associated with this event. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period. There is an increasing chance of isolated active periods 14 February with the anticipated passage of a CME on 11 February. III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Feb 145 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/010-010/010-010/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05