:Product: 20010213RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 044 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Just one C-class event occurred, a C1/Sf from Region 9348 (N15W33), at 1633 UTC. Most regions were either stable or decaying. The 10.7 cm dropped again, for the fourth straight day. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The solar wind speed increased from 450 to 600 km/s near 0300 UTC, and is still hovering near 550 km/s. As a consequence, active to minor storm levels have been noted since. Although this change in solar wind plasma did not have the common characteristics of a shock, it may be related to the CME that left the Sun on 11 February. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled. However, substorms may bring periods of active to minor storm conditions during local nighttimes. This disturbance should weaken by the end of the interval. III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Feb 141 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 015/012-015/015-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/50/40 Minor storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/05