:Product: 20010215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two new regions were numbered, 9351 (S21W42) and 9352 (S23E63). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at moderate levels for most of the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 135 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/015-010/012-005/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/01