:Product: 20010216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two new regions were numbered, 9353 (S23E17) and 9354 (S09E34). A full-halo CME was observed by the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft starting at 15/1430 UTC. The origin of this activity is thought to be close to but not connected to Region 9350 (N18E16 at 15/2400 UTC). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The expected arrival of the CME described in section IA may produce isolated active periods, possibly starting late on the first day of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 130 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/010-012/010-012/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05