:Product: 20010218RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9354 (S09E07) continued to show minor growth in area and spots since yesterday. New Regions 9355 (N19E35), 9356 (S13W10), 9357 (S25E34), and 9358 (S08E46) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels briefly during the period. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with periods of unsettled conditions possible. III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Feb 132 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01