:Product: 20010220RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9354 (S08W20) produced a couple of minor C-class X-ray events. Other minor C-class events occurred but were optically uncorrelated. Minor growth was observed in Region 9358 (S08E20) while Region 9354 displayed no significant change in area or number of spots. New Region 9359 (N10E74) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a chance for an isolated minor M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with one period of isolated active conditions observed in the mid latitudes from 20/0900 - 1200Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Feb 146 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 168 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01