:Product: 20010221RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several C-class X-ray events occurred with the highest being a C6/Sf produced by Region 9354 (S08W32) at 21/1427Z. Region 9354 has stayed about the same in size and number of spots but has increased in magnetic complexity since yesterday. New Region 9360 (S11E58) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. However, the is a chance for an isolated M-class event from either Region 9354 or Region 9359 (N10E64). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A non-Earth directed CME occurred yesterday behind the NE limb. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb Class M 20/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Feb 144 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 150/150/150 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01