:Product: 20010222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low with only a few weak C-class X-ray flares. Region 9354 (S09W45) maintained its size, but lost much of the magnetic complexity that had developed yesterday. New region 9361 (S17E07) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 146 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/006-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01