:Product: 20010226RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. An optically uncorrelated C1 x-ray flare occurred at 26/0741 UTC. The probable source for this event was observed by SOHO/LASCO from behind the west limb. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. An isolated period of active conditions occurred at 26/1800 UTC. A slight proton enhancement was observed which was probably associated with the event which occurred behind the limb earlier today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Feb 135 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 164 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 008/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01