:Product: 20010228RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Feb 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. An 11 degree filament (S17W05) disappeared between 28/1146-1323 UTC. A corresponding CME was observed by the LASCO imagery. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 9364 (S10W16) and 9365 (S08E37). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled the next two days of the forecast. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three as a result of today's CME. III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 132 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 008/008-005/005-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/30 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/06 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/40 Minor storm 10/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05