:Product: 20010302RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 061 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity declined to very low levels. Isolated, optically uncorrelated B-class X-ray bursts occurred. No significant changes were observed in any of the visible regions, which were small and simply structured. New Regions 9366 (S23E38), 9367 (N12E48), and 9368 (N27E48) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 02/1800 - 2100 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels during most of the period. Active levels are expected to be brief due to weak CME effects during the first two days and weak coronal hole effects on the third day. III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Mar 130 Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 02 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 012/012-012/008-010/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01