:Product: 20010303RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional B-class subflares occurred, most of which were produced by newly numbered Region 9369 (N18W49). Region 9366 (S25E25) grew at a moderate pace and showed some polarity mixing within the intermediate portion of the group, but produced no flares. No significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 9370 (N09E51) was also numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9366 could produce an isolated M-class flare, if it continues to develop. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of the period. Activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels at approximately 03/1100 UTC following a CME passage at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1040 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 March as CME effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels during the remaining two days with a slight chance for isolated active periods due to weak coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period. III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Mar 140 Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 020/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 015/012-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01