:Product: 20010304RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. Isolated B- and C-class X-ray flares occurred. Minor growth was observed in Regions 9366 (S25E13), 9368 (N26E20), and 9369 (N17W62); but all were small and simply-structured. The remaining regions were small and stable. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly unsettled levels with an isolated active period during 04/1500 - 1800 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. Brief active conditions will be possible during the first two days due to weak coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period. III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Mar 141 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 161 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 010/012-010/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01