:Product: 20010306RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 06/1013 UTC. SOHO/LASCO data suggest an association with the most energetic phase of a CME observed off the west limb, though not appearing earth-directed. Several lesser C-class events occurred throughout the day, with three observed from Region 9368 (N25W08), which underwent some growth in spot count and areal coverage, but without significant change in magnetic complexity. Region 9371 (N20W64) exhibited similar growth, but produced only two subfaint optical flares without notable x-ray enhancements. Region 9370 showed some increase in size and complexity, but has remained quiet so far, along with the other numbered regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low for the next three days, though a chance for isolated moderate (weak M-class) activity exists principally for Region 9368. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains somewhat elevated, but recent effects from a coronal hole high speed stream appear to have waned over the course of the day. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active conditions possible for the next 24 hours, until coronal hole effects have completely subsided. Mainly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected thereafter for the remainder of the forecast period. III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Mar 158 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 162/165/165 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 019/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 008/008-007/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01