:Product: 20010307RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been low, though there has been a modest increase in flare activity. The largest event of the day was a C7/Sf from Region 9368 (N25W20) at 07/1927 UTC, and was in progress at the time of today's 10cm flux observation. As a result, the 10cm flux was moderately enhanced by perhaps 10 sfu. A long duration event also occurred today, a C5/Sf from Region 9371 (N21W79) at 07/1502 UTC. Regions 9368 and 9371 exhibited further growth in areal coverage, and produced several lesser C-Class flares, as did Regions 9165 (S10W62) and 9170 (N09E00). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The greatest chance for isolated M-class activity exists for Region 9368, and for Region 9371 as it rotates beyond the west limb within the next 24 hours. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one isolated active period observed at Boulder during 08/1200-1500 UTC. The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring an earth-directed CME. III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Mar 177 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 007/008-005/007-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01