:Product: 20010308RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of an impulsive M5/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W33) at 08/1118 UTC. A Type-II radio sweep and CME were also observed in association with this event. Region 9368 has exhibited a further increase in size, spot count, and magnetic complexity, and is the largest active region on the visible disk. Other activity of note today included a C5/Sf flare from Region 9370 (N10W12) and a general elevation in background x-ray flux, with optically uncorrelated long duration enhancements. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9368, 9370, and 9371 (N22W86) are all possible sources of isolated M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to unsettled, and greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days. The CME activity noted in section 1A above, while not appearing primarily earth-directed, could be a source of isolated active conditions by day three. III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Mar 167 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 162 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 005/007-005/007-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/25 Minor storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/30 Minor storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01