:Product: 20010309RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of the day was an M1/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W44) at 09/0157 UTC. A long duration M1 flare also occurred at 09/1028 UTC, but without definitive optical correlation. Possible sources indicated by EIT imagery include east and west limb activity as well as Region 9370 (N11W24), but LASCO data indicate no associated CME. Newly numbered and rapidly developing Region 9372 (S37W50) produced several C-class flares, the largest a C7/Sf at 09/2027 UTC. Region 9373 (S07E71) was also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Active regions noted in section 1A above are all possible sources of isolated M-class activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater-than-2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were moderately enhanced. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. Isolated active and minor storm periods are possible on days two and three, primarily due to the expected influence of a recurrent coronal hole. There is also a small chance for peripheral transient effects from the CME activity of 8 March during the same period. III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Mar 161 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 005/007-010/015-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/20 Minor storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01