:Product: 20010310RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 9368 (N24W59) produced an M6/1b flare at 10/0405Z, with moderate radio bursts and a Type II sweep. A CME was also observed from this event. This moderately complex region also produced a C9/1n flare at 09/2324Z. Region 9273 (S36W64) continues to develop and produced several minor C-class flares throughout the period. A C6 event was observed at 10/1622Z and was likely associated with a CME observed off the SE limb. New Regions 9374 (S19E50) and 9375 (S16W46) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Continued C-class and isolated M-class activity is expected from Regions 9368, 9372, and 9370 (N10W38). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions between 10/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons continue at moderately enhanced levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated, high latitude active periods are possible throughout the three day period. III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Mar 160 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 010/015-008/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01