:Product: 20010311RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a C5 flare at 11/0856Z. Activity was observed in newly numbered Region 9376 (S13E72), and in Region 9368 (N25W73) during this X-ray event. Region 9376 produced additional minor C-class flares. The level of activity in active Regions 9368 and 9372 (S16w76) tapered off considerably this period as both regions approach the west limb. New Region 9377 (S10E01) was also numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class flare is still possible from Regions 9368 or 9372 as they rotate around the west limb. An isolated M-class is also possible from newly numbered Region 9376, and Region 9373 (S08E48) as it continues to slowly develop. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons continue at moderately enhanced levels. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Mar 158 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 008/008-007/007-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01