:Product: 20010312RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions 9373 (S08E34) and 9376 (S15E57) emerged as the most active regions on the visible disk. Region 9373 continues to develop in size and complexity and produced occasional subfaint C-class flares. Region 9376 produced a C4/Sf at 12/1737Z with an associated CME. This region's proximity to the SE limb is still hindering a thorough analysis, but new spots became apparent today in and near this region; moderate complexity is obvious with at least three regions relatively close to each other. An eruption off the SW limb was observed late in the period. It was likely associated with an eruption of a large bushy filament that rotated around the west limb a few days ago. New Regions 9378 (N24W32), 9379 (N31E39), and 9380 (S09E66) were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Best chance for a M-flare is from Regions 9373 and 9376. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions existed prior to a shock observed at SOHO/MTOF at approximately 12/0500Z. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed at all latitudes since the shock. This disturbance is presumed to be associated with the 8 Mar, M5/1b flare and CME. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through day 1. III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Mar 158 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/008-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/30/25 Minor storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 10/05/01