:Product: 20010314RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The largest x-ray flare of the past day was a B9 at 14/1211 UTC. No optical flare reports were received for this particular event. Region 9373 (S08E07) remains the largest and most complex area on the visible disk and has changed little since yesterday. New Regions 9382 (N09W74), 9383 (S09W44), and 9384 (N10E02) were numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 9373 is the most likely source of activity, including the possibility of an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar Class M 40/35/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Mar 142 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 163 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 010/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01