:Product: 20010316RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9373 (S07W20) generated several small C-class flares. The largest of these was a C5/SN at 16/1041 UTC. Region 9384 (N11W23) also produced a number of small C-class subflares. Both Regions exhibited flare-bright plage fluctuations throughout the day. A full halo CME was reported by the SOHO LASCO team as being first observed in the LASCO C2 instrument at 16/0350 UTC. Timing of the event suggests that it is most likely associated with an eruptive filament between Regions 9373 and 9384. Small C-class flares also occurred in these Regions during this time period. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional C-class flares are possible in Regions 9373 and 9384. Both Regions are also capable of a low-level M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased activity levels are possible at the end of the three-day forecast period in response to the CME discussed in Part IA. III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Mar 140 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 135/130/130 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 161 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 005/005-015/015-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/25 Minor storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/25 Minor storm 05/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/02