:Product: 20010317RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past day was a C3/SF at 17/1720 UTC in Region 9373 (S07W34). Region 9384 (N12W35) also produced small flares. Both of these sunspot groups have been less active this past day than during the day before. New Region 9385 (S13E42) was numbered. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 9373 and 9384 are capable of C-class activity and possibly a small M-class flare. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased levels of activity are possible on March 19-20 due to a CME which occurred late on March 15. III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Mar 134 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 161 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 004/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 008/008-015/015-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/02/02 B. High Latitudes Active 15/25/25 Minor storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/05