:Product: 20010318RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 077 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 9373 (S07W43) produced several small C-class flares. One flare at 18/0850 UTC was an C3/1f with an associated Type II radio sweep. This region continues to increase in size, spot count, and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic classification. New Region 9386 (N03W11) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible for 19 and 20 March due to the CME which occurred late on 15 March. III. Event Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Mar 140 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 135/130/135 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 160 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 015/015-015/010-008/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01