:Product: 20010319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2001 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 9373 (S07W58)
produced a C3/1f at 19/1807 UTC.  This region continues to be the
most active on the solar disk.  New Region 9387 (N09E59) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft around 19/1020
UTC.  This activity is likely associated with the CME which occurred
late on 15 March.  A brief magnetopause crossing was observed on
GOES-8 (W075) at 19/1807 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 147
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  140/140/140
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 159
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  010/010-008/005-008/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01