:Product: 20010319RSGA.txt :Issued: 2001 Mar 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2001 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 9373 (S07W58) produced a C3/1f at 19/1807 UTC. This region continues to be the most active on the solar disk. New Region 9387 (N09E59) was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft around 19/1020 UTC. This activity is likely associated with the CME which occurred late on 15 March. A brief magnetopause crossing was observed on GOES-8 (W075) at 19/1807 UTC. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Mar 147 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 159 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 010/010-008/005-008/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01